Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2025-03-25 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 1 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

MIN: 35.2%

VGK: 64.8%

Expected Goals

MIN: 2.63

VGK: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

MIN

Marc-Andre Fleury - 14-9-1 | 0.899 SV% | 2.93 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Marc-Andre Fleury	38	33	5	86.8%	3.29	2	-1.71
VGK	Adin Hill	24	23	1	95.8%	1.58	0	0.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MIN at home vs VGK: 4-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-12	MIN 4 - 2 VGK	MIN	VGK
2026-03-06	VGK 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-12-29	VGK 2 - 5 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-11-16	MIN 3 - 2 VGK	MIN	VGK
2025-05-01	MIN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	7	0	0.41
1	VGK	11	0	0.42
2	MIN	17	0	0.74
2	VGK	18	0	1.21
3	MIN	12	0	0.44
3	VGK	15	2	1.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 1 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.6 - 3.3