Washington Capitals at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-03-25 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 2 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

WPG: 50.7%

WSH: 49.3%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.30

WSH: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	29	27	2	93.1%	2.20	0	0.20
WSH	Logan Thompson	25	22	3	88.0%	2.02	1	-0.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WPG at home vs WSH: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	WPG 5 - 1 WSH	WPG	WSH
2025-11-26	WSH 4 - 3 WPG	WSH	WSH
2025-03-25	WPG 3 - 2 WSH	WPG	WPG
2025-02-01	WSH 4 - 5 WPG	WPG	WSH
2024-03-24	WSH 3 - 0 WPG	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	14	0	0.43
1	WSH	12	0	0.77
2	WPG	11	0	0.68
2	WSH	17	0	0.58
3	WPG	13	1	0.81
3	WSH	16	0	0.72
4	WPG	1	0	0.10
4	WSH	2	0	0.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 2 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9