Washington Capitals at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions
2025-03-25 • Canada Life Centre
Winnipeg Jets 3 - 2 Washington Capitals
🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WPG: 49.7%
WSH: 50.3%
Expected Goals
WPG: 3.67
WSH: 2.95
Total Goals
Median: 7.1
Over 5.5: 74%
Over 6.5: 60%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 23-23-11 | 0.895 SV% | 2.86 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 31-21-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA
| Stat | WPG | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.867 | 0.912 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.960 | 0.857 |
| GAA | 2.51 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WPG at home vs WSH: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | WPG 5 - 1 WSH | WPG | WSH |
| 2025-11-26 | WSH 4 - 3 WPG | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-03-25 | WPG 3 - 2 WSH | WPG | WSH |
| 2025-02-01 | WSH 4 - 5 WPG | WPG | WSH |
| 2024-03-24 | WSH 3 - 0 WPG | WSH | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 06:50 | WPG | Goal |
| 1 | 19:20 | WPG | Goal |
| 2 | 19:48 | WPG | Goal |
| 3 | 16:00 | WPG | Goal |
| 4 | 01:28 | WPG | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 50.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.6
Score Breakdown
Winnipeg Jets 3 - 2 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.7 - 2.9
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