Detroit Red Wings at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-03-25 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 5 - 2 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

COL: 78.1%

DET: 21.9%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.37

DET: 2.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

DET

Alex Lyon - 14-9-1 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	23	21	2	91.3%	3.11	3	1.11
DET	Alex Lyon	28	23	5	82.1%	3.45	2	-1.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • COL at home vs DET: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	COL 0 - 2 DET	DET	COL
2026-01-31	DET 0 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-03-25	COL 5 - 2 DET	COL	COL
2024-12-07	DET 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2024-03-06	COL 7 - 2 DET	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	12	1	0.87
1	DET	13	1	0.80
2	COL	16	0	0.87
2	DET	15	1	1.10
3	COL	14	1	1.71
3	DET	12	1	1.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 78.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 5 - 2 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7