Vancouver Canucks at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-03-26 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 2 - 5 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 55.4%

VAN: 44.6%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.27

VAN: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	25	20	5	80.0%	3.46	2	-1.54
VAN	Thatcher Demko	28	26	2	92.9%	2.98	1	0.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • NYI at home vs VAN: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	VAN 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	VAN
2025-12-19	NYI 1 - 4 VAN	VAN	NYI
2025-03-26	NYI 2 - 5 VAN	VAN	NYI
2024-11-14	VAN 2 - 5 NYI	NYI	VAN
2024-01-09	NYI 2 - 5 VAN	VAN	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	18	1	1.08
1	VAN	10	0	0.55
2	NYI	21	0	1.26
2	VAN	22	0	1.42
3	NYI	14	0	0.64
3	VAN	14	2	1.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 2 - 5 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0