Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-03-27 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 7 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 48.4%

PIT: 51.6%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.36

PIT: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 57%

BUF

Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • BUF at home vs PIT: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	PIT 1 - 5 BUF	BUF	PIT
2026-02-05	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-26	PIT 4 - 2 BUF	PIT	PIT
2025-03-27	BUF 7 - 3 PIT	BUF	PIT
2025-01-17	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	BUF

Period	Time	Team	Scorer
1	00:27	BUF	Goal
1	04:44	BUF	Goal
1	11:11	BUF	Goal
2	03:36	BUF	Goal
2	05:20	BUF	Goal
2	11:34	BUF	Goal
2	12:02	BUF	Goal
2	19:34	BUF	Goal
3	02:16	BUF	Goal
3	13:54	BUF	Goal

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 7 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1