Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-03-27 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 4 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 50.2%

OTT: 49.8%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.06

OTT: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DET at home vs OTT: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	DET 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	DET
2026-02-26	OTT 1 - 2 DET	DET	OTT
2026-01-18	DET 4 - 3 OTT	DET	DET
2026-01-05	OTT 3 - 5 DET	DET	OTT
2025-03-27	DET 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	DET

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	24	1	1.78
1	OTT	11	0	0.70
2	DET	10	0	0.34
2	OTT	21	2	1.85
3	DET	13	1	1.01
3	OTT	12	1	0.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0