Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-03-27 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 4 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 53.0%

OTT: 47.0%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.18

OTT: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

DET

Alex Lyon - 14-9-1 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Alex Lyon	32	28	4	87.5%	3.52	3	-0.48
OTT	Linus Ullmark	34	31	3	91.2%	3.13	2	0.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • DET at home vs OTT: 4-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-06	DET 5 - 3 OTT	DET	DET
2026-03-24	DET 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	DET
2026-02-26	OTT 1 - 2 DET	DET	OTT
2026-01-18	DET 4 - 3 OTT	DET	DET
2026-01-05	OTT 3 - 5 DET	DET	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	24	1	1.78
1	OTT	11	0	0.70
2	DET	10	0	0.34
2	OTT	21	2	1.85
3	DET	13	1	1.01
3	OTT	12	1	0.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9