Montreal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-03-27 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 6 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

PHI: 62.9%

MTL: 37.1%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.95

MTL: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	30	26	4	86.7%	3.75	1	-0.25
MTL	Jakub Dobes	30	24	6	80.0%	5.51	4	-0.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • PHI at home vs MTL: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	PHI 4 - 2 MTL	PHI	PHI
2025-12-16	MTL 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-11-04	MTL 4 - 5 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-04-05	MTL 3 - 2 PHI	MTL	PHI
2025-03-27	PHI 6 - 4 MTL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	17	0	1.21
1	MTL	14	0	0.71
2	PHI	14	0	0.90
2	MTL	17	0	1.28
3	PHI	19	4	3.40
3	MTL	18	1	1.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 6 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 4.0 - 2.8