Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions
2025-03-27 • Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Flames 2 - 5 Dallas Stars
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CGY: 58.4%
DAL: 41.6%
Expected Goals
CGY: 2.93
DAL: 3.41
Total Goals
Median: 6.1
Over 5.5: 63%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 23-10-4 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
| Stat | CGY | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.877 | 0.860 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.57 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 57% • CGY at home vs DAL: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | CGY 3 - 2 DAL | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-03-27 | CGY 2 - 5 DAL | DAL | CGY |
| 2025-03-06 | DAL 3 - 2 CGY | DAL | DAL |
| 2024-12-08 | DAL 6 - 2 CGY | DAL | DAL |
| 2023-11-30 | CGY 4 - 3 DAL | CGY | CGY |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 07:09 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 14:11 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 12:55 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 08:12 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 18:11 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 13:22 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 00:16 | DAL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Calgary Flames 2 - 5 Dallas Stars
Expected: 2.9 - 3.4