Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-03-27 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 5 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 51.2%

DAL: 48.8%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.81

DAL: 3.69

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	19	14	5	73.7%	3.29	3	-1.71
DAL	Casey DeSmith	48	46	2	95.8%	4.30	1	2.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs DAL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	DAL 4 - 3 CGY	DAL	DAL
2026-03-03	CGY 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-11-22	CGY 3 - 2 DAL	CGY	CGY
2025-03-27	CGY 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-03-06	DAL 3 - 2 CGY	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	17	0	0.96
1	DAL	18	0	1.12
2	CGY	30	1	1.64
2	DAL	8	1	0.96
3	CGY	27	0	1.70
3	DAL	7	2	1.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 2 - 5 Dallas Stars

Expected: 2.8 - 3.7