Toronto Maple Leafs at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-03-27 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 6 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 47.5%

TOR: 52.5%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.27

TOR: 3.52

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • SJS at home vs TOR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	SJS 4 - 1 TOR	SJS	SJS
2025-12-11	TOR 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	TOR
2025-03-27	SJS 6 - 5 TOR	SJS	TOR
2025-03-03	TOR 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	SJS
2024-01-09	TOR 7 - 1 SJS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	21	1	1.57
1	TOR	14	0	0.84
2	SJS	16	0	0.85
2	TOR	18	2	1.76
3	SJS	15	2	1.58
3	TOR	10	0	0.66
4	SJS	2	0	0.09
4	TOR	8	1	1.10
5	SJS	2	2	1.93
5	TOR	3	1	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 6 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 3.5