Toronto Maple Leafs at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-03-27 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 6 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

SJS: 54.1%

TOR: 45.9%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.27

TOR: 3.34

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

SJS

Alexandar Georgiev - 15-26-4 | 0.875 SV% | 3.71 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Alexandar Georgiev	37	31	6	83.8%	5.31	4	-0.69
TOR	Joseph Woll	37	30	7	81.1%	6.02	5	-0.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • SJS at home vs TOR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	SJS 4 - 1 TOR	SJS	SJS
2025-12-11	TOR 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	TOR
2025-03-27	SJS 6 - 5 TOR	SJS	SJS
2025-03-03	TOR 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	TOR
2024-01-09	TOR 7 - 1 SJS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	21	1	1.57
1	TOR	14	0	0.84
2	SJS	16	0	0.85
2	TOR	18	2	1.76
3	SJS	15	2	1.58
3	TOR	10	0	0.66
4	SJS	2	0	0.09
4	TOR	8	1	1.10
5	SJS	2	2	1.93
5	TOR	3	1	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 6 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 3.3