Montreal Canadiens at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2025-03-28 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 4 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

CAR: 80.9%

MTL: 19.1%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.98

MTL: 2.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	15	14	1	93.3%	1.76	1	0.76
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	25	21	4	84.0%	3.89	3	-0.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 57% • CAR at home vs MTL: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-29	CAR 6 - 1 MTL	CAR	CAR
2026-05-27	MTL 0 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-25	MTL 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-23	CAR 3 - 2 MTL	CAR	CAR
2026-05-21	CAR 2 - 6 MTL	MTL	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	15	1	1.73
1	MTL	7	0	0.60
2	CAR	15	1	1.20
2	MTL	5	0	0.36
3	CAR	9	1	0.96
3	MTL	13	1	0.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 80.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 4 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 4.0 - 2.1