Vegas Golden Knights at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2025-03-28 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

CHI: 22.9%

VGK: 77.1%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.68

VGK: 3.54

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 43%

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Spencer Knight	22	17	5	77.3%	2.60	3	-2.40
VGK	Adin Hill	21	18	3	85.7%	2.26	0	-0.74

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 69% • CHI at home vs VGK: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-29	VGK 5 - 2 CHI	VGK	VGK
2026-03-14	VGK 4 - 0 CHI	VGK	VGK
2026-01-04	CHI 3 - 2 VGK	CHI	VGK
2025-12-02	VGK 4 - 3 CHI	VGK	VGK
2025-03-28	CHI 3 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	13	0	0.89
1	VGK	9	0	0.30
2	CHI	11	0	0.90
2	VGK	14	1	1.11
3	CHI	10	0	0.47
3	VGK	10	2	1.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 77.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.7 - 3.5