New York Rangers at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2025-03-28 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 5 - 4 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

ANA: 44.8%

NYR: 55.2%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.07

NYR: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	30	26	4	86.7%	3.64	1	-0.36
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	33	28	5	84.8%	2.92	0	-2.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • ANA at home vs NYR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	ANA 5 - 3 NYR	ANA	ANA
2025-12-15	NYR 1 - 4 ANA	ANA	NYR
2025-03-28	ANA 5 - 4 NYR	ANA	NYR
2024-10-26	NYR 2 - 1 ANA	NYR	NYR
2024-01-21	ANA 2 - 5 NYR	NYR	ANA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	25	0	1.48
1	NYR	15	1	1.26
2	ANA	13	0	0.86
2	NYR	18	0	0.88
3	ANA	10	0	0.47
3	NYR	16	0	1.51
4	ANA	1	0	0.11
4	NYR	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 5 - 4 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1