New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-03-29 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 3 New York Islanders
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 59.9%
NYI: 40.1%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.30
NYI: 2.86
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 20-13-2 | 0.916 SV% | 2.44 GAA
| Stat | TBL | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.930 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.917 | 0.969 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.55 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs NYI: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | NYI 3 - 2 TBL | NYI | NYI |
| 2025-12-06 | TBL 0 - 2 NYI | NYI | TBL |
| 2025-12-02 | NYI 2 - 1 TBL | NYI | NYI |
| 2025-04-01 | NYI 1 - 4 TBL | TBL | NYI |
| 2025-03-29 | TBL 5 - 3 NYI | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:02 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 07:31 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 17:57 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 19:43 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 05:58 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 07:47 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 08:47 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:46 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 59.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 3 New York Islanders
Expected: 3.3 - 2.9