St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-03-29 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (68% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 67.6%

STL: 32.4%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.68

STL: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 42%

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	27	25	2	92.6%	3.77	6	1.77
STL	Jordan Binnington	29	28	1	96.6%	3.04	0	2.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • COL at home vs STL: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	STL 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-05	COL 2 - 3 STL	STL	COL
2025-12-31	COL 6 - 1 STL	COL	COL
2025-04-05	STL 5 - 4 COL	STL	COL
2025-03-29	COL 1 - 2 STL	STL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	17	0	0.99
1	STL	14	1	0.98
2	COL	13	0	0.68
2	STL	7	1	0.46
3	COL	20	0	1.38
3	STL	19	4	2.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 67.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.7 - 2.8