Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-03-29 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 2 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

EDM: 62.2%

CGY: 37.8%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.83

CGY: 2.65

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

EDM

Calvin Pickard - 4-5-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.69 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Calvin Pickard	28	26	2	92.9%	2.27	1	0.27
CGY	Dustin Wolf	29	26	3	89.7%	2.42	0	-0.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • EDM at home vs CGY: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	CGY 4 - 3 EDM	CGY	CGY
2025-12-27	CGY 3 - 2 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-23	EDM 5 - 1 CGY	EDM	EDM
2025-10-08	EDM 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	CGY
2025-03-29	EDM 3 - 2 CGY	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	12	0	0.84
1	CGY	9	1	0.58
2	EDM	12	0	0.66
2	CGY	16	0	1.17
3	EDM	16	0	0.85
3	CGY	10	0	0.37
4	EDM	1	0	0.08
4	CGY	3	0	0.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 2 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.8 - 2.6