Montreal Canadiens at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions
2025-03-30 • Amerant Bank Arena
Florida Panthers 2 - 4 Montreal Canadiens
🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
FLA: 60.4%
MTL: 39.6%
Expected Goals
FLA: 2.96
MTL: 2.40
Total Goals
Median: 5.0
Over 5.5: 44%
Over 6.5: 30%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
FLA
Sergei Bobrovsky - 21-17-1 | 0.871 SV% | 3.13 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
| Stat | FLA | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.837 | 0.903 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.737 | — |
| GAA | 2.80 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • FLA at home vs MTL: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-08 | MTL 6 - 2 FLA | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-12-30 | FLA 2 - 3 MTL | MTL | FLA |
| 2025-04-01 | MTL 3 - 2 FLA | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-03-30 | FLA 2 - 4 MTL | MTL | FLA |
| 2025-03-15 | MTL 3 - 1 FLA | MTL | MTL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12:03 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 13:16 | FLA | Goal |
| 2 | 11:27 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 16:24 | FLA | Goal |
| 3 | 02:02 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 18:16 | MTL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 5.4
Score Breakdown
Florida Panthers 2 - 4 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.0 - 2.4