Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-03-30 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 8 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (69% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 68.8%

BUF: 31.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.52

BUF: 3.39

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

BUF

James Reimer - 10-10-2 | 0.896 SV% | 3.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	23	15	8	65.2%	4.16	5	-3.84
BUF	James Reimer	29	24	5	82.8%	3.36	3	-1.64

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs BUF: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	WSH 6 - 2 BUF	WSH	WSH
2026-03-12	BUF 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	BUF
2025-11-01	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	WSH
2025-03-30	WSH 5 - 8 BUF	BUF	WSH
2025-01-06	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	14	1	1.34
1	BUF	12	2	1.33
2	WSH	14	0	0.36
2	BUF	13	2	1.41
3	WSH	22	2	1.66
3	BUF	10	1	1.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 68.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 13.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 5 - 8 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.5 - 3.4