Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-03-30 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 0 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

PIT: 60.1%

OTT: 39.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.31

OTT: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	31	31	0	100.0%	2.52	1	2.52
OTT	Anton Forsberg	35	34	1	97.1%	3.29	1	2.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • PIT at home vs OTT: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	OTT 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	OTT
2026-02-02	PIT 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	PIT
2025-12-18	OTT 4 - 0 PIT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-30	PIT 1 - 0 OTT	PIT	PIT
2025-01-11	PIT 0 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	17	0	1.42
1	OTT	19	1	1.26
2	PIT	15	0	0.48
2	OTT	11	0	0.72
3	PIT	23	1	1.16
3	OTT	9	0	0.51
4	PIT	2	0	0.23
4	OTT	1	0	0.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 0 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2