Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-03-31 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (76% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 75.7%

CGY: 24.3%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.34

CGY: 2.33

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 49%

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Scott Wedgewood	30	27	3	90.0%	3.52	2	0.52
CGY	Dan Vladar	31	29	2	93.5%	3.35	2	1.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • COL at home vs CGY: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	CGY 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-09	COL 3 - 1 CGY	COL	COL
2026-03-30	COL 9 - 2 CGY	COL	COL
2025-03-31	COL 2 - 3 CGY	CGY	COL
2025-03-14	CGY 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	11	0	0.46
1	CGY	9	0	0.50
2	COL	15	0	1.44
2	CGY	10	0	0.49
3	COL	9	2	0.82
3	CGY	15	1	1.14
4	COL	5	0	0.40
4	CGY	6	0	0.45
5	COL	3	0	0.22
5	CGY	3	1	0.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 75.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.3 - 2.3