Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions
2025-03-31 • Ball Arena
Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 Calgary Flames
🚨 Upset Loss (72% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
COL: 72.0%
CGY: 28.0%
Expected Goals
COL: 3.09
CGY: 2.05
Total Goals
Median: 3.6
Over 5.5: 27%
Over 6.5: 17%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 30-6-6 | 0.920 SV% | 2.07 GAA
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 23-29-3 | 0.899 SV% | 3.01 GAA
| Stat | COL | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.919 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.951 | 0.904 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.931 | 0.914 |
| GAA | 2.13 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • COL at home vs CGY: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | CGY 1 - 3 COL | COL | COL |
| 2026-04-09 | COL 3 - 1 CGY | COL | COL |
| 2026-03-30 | COL 9 - 2 CGY | COL | COL |
| 2025-03-31 | COL 2 - 3 CGY | CGY | COL |
| 2025-03-14 | CGY 2 - 4 COL | COL | COL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16:31 | COL | Goal |
| 2 | 07:59 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 10:57 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 11:29 | COL | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | COL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 72.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.1
Score Breakdown
Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 Calgary Flames
Expected: 3.1 - 2.0
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