Dallas Stars at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2025-03-31 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 1 - 3 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

SEA: 52.7%

DAL: 47.3%

Expected Goals

SEA: 2.97

DAL: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 47%

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	31	28	3	90.3%	4.08	3	1.08
DAL	Casey DeSmith	36	35	1	97.2%	2.83	0	1.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • SEA at home vs DAL: 3-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	DAL 4 - 1 SEA	DAL	DAL
2025-11-26	SEA 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	SEA
2025-11-09	DAL 2 - 1 SEA	DAL	DAL
2025-03-31	SEA 1 - 3 DAL	DAL	SEA
2025-03-29	SEA 1 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	11	0	0.74
1	DAL	20	1	1.55
2	SEA	24	0	1.31
2	DAL	14	0	1.01
3	SEA	19	0	0.77
3	DAL	13	2	1.53

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Seattle Kraken 1 - 3 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.0 - 2.8