Washington Capitals at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-04-01 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 3 - 4 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 55.3%

WSH: 44.7%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.01

WSH: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	32	28	4	87.5%	3.16	3	-0.84
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	24	21	3	87.5%	2.44	0	-0.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • BOS at home vs WSH: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	WSH 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	WSH
2026-03-07	BOS 3 - 1 WSH	BOS	BOS
2025-10-08	WSH 1 - 3 BOS	BOS	BOS
2025-04-01	BOS 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	BOS
2024-12-31	WSH 3 - 1 BOS	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	9	0	0.27
1	WSH	14	0	0.82
2	BOS	18	0	1.35
2	WSH	7	0	0.56
3	BOS	14	0	0.83
3	WSH	20	3	1.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 3 - 4 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2