Florida Panthers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-04-01 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 42.8%

FLA: 57.2%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.93

FLA: 3.34

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

FLA

Vitek Vanecek - 5-14-4 | 0.884 SV% | 3.62 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	27	25	2	92.6%	2.79	2	0.79
FLA	Vitek Vanecek	21	18	3	85.7%	3.59	4	0.59

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • MTL at home vs FLA: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	MTL 4 - 3 FLA	MTL	MTL
2026-01-08	MTL 6 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-12-30	FLA 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	FLA
2025-04-01	MTL 3 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-03-30	FLA 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	14	1	0.84
1	FLA	12	0	0.39
2	MTL	12	1	0.89
2	FLA	18	2	1.28
3	MTL	6	1	1.19
3	FLA	18	0	1.13
4	MTL	1	1	0.66
4	FLA	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Florida Panthers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3