Florida Panthers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-04-01 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 45.2%

FLA: 54.8%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.97

FLA: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 52%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • MTL at home vs FLA: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	MTL 4 - 3 FLA	MTL	FLA
2026-01-08	MTL 6 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-12-30	FLA 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-01	MTL 3 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-03-30	FLA 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	14	1	0.84
1	FLA	12	0	0.39
2	MTL	12	1	0.89
2	FLA	18	2	1.28
3	MTL	6	1	1.19
3	FLA	18	0	1.13
4	MTL	1	1	0.66
4	FLA	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3