Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-04-01 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 53.0%

BUF: 47.0%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.22

BUF: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • OTT at home vs BUF: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	OTT 4 - 1 BUF	OTT	OTT
2025-12-23	OTT 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-10-15	BUF 8 - 4 OTT	BUF	OTT
2025-04-01	OTT 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-03-25	BUF 3 - 2 OTT	BUF	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	19	0	0.98
1	BUF	7	1	0.54
2	OTT	16	0	1.03
2	BUF	12	1	1.01
3	OTT	26	0	1.22
3	BUF	14	3	2.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1