Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-04-01 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

NYI: 44.4%

TBL: 55.6%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.21

TBL: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs TBL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	NYI 3 - 2 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-12-06	TBL 0 - 2 NYI	NYI	TBL
2025-12-02	NYI 2 - 1 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-04-01	NYI 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-29	TBL 5 - 3 NYI	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	16	0	0.82
1	TBL	21	2	1.63
2	NYI	14	2	1.75
2	TBL	8	0	0.66
3	NYI	11	0	0.43
3	TBL	9	2	1.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2