Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-04-01 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

NYI: 44.8%

TBL: 55.2%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.04

TBL: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	24	20	4	83.3%	3.85	4	-0.15
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	29	28	1	96.6%	3.01	2	2.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NYI at home vs TBL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	NYI 3 - 2 TBL	NYI	TBL
2025-12-06	TBL 0 - 2 NYI	NYI	TBL
2025-12-02	NYI 2 - 1 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-04-01	NYI 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-29	TBL 5 - 3 NYI	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	16	0	0.82
1	TBL	21	2	1.63
2	NYI	14	2	1.75
2	TBL	8	0	0.66
3	NYI	11	0	0.43
3	TBL	9	2	1.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3