Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-04-02 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

TOR: 53.4%

FLA: 46.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.99

FLA: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 39%

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	31	29	2	93.5%	3.34	2	1.34
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	26	23	3	88.5%	2.52	1	-0.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 79% • TOR at home vs FLA: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	TOR
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	0	0.84
1	FLA	12	0	0.45
2	TOR	9	1	1.03
2	FLA	23	1	1.48
3	TOR	11	0	0.65
3	FLA	19	1	1.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0