Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-04-03 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 46.1%

TBL: 53.9%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.96

TBL: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • OTT at home vs TBL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	OTT 6 - 2 TBL	OTT	OTT
2026-03-28	TBL 4 - 2 OTT	TBL	OTT
2025-10-09	TBL 4 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-04-03	OTT 2 - 1 TBL	OTT	TBL
2025-02-06	TBL 5 - 1 OTT	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	11	0	0.78
1	TBL	17	0	1.38
2	OTT	11	0	0.50
2	TBL	10	1	0.98
3	OTT	5	1	0.86
3	TBL	16	1	1.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2