Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-04-03 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 47.6%

TBL: 52.4%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.13

TBL: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 43%

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	32	31	1	96.9%	3.78	2	2.78
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	19	17	2	89.5%	2.14	1	0.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • OTT at home vs TBL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	OTT 6 - 2 TBL	OTT	OTT
2026-03-28	TBL 4 - 2 OTT	TBL	TBL
2025-10-09	TBL 4 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-04-03	OTT 2 - 1 TBL	OTT	TBL
2025-02-06	TBL 5 - 1 OTT	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	11	0	0.78
1	TBL	17	0	1.38
2	OTT	11	0	0.50
2	TBL	10	1	0.98
3	OTT	5	1	0.86
3	TBL	16	1	1.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1