Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions
2025-04-03 • Canadian Tire Centre
Ottawa Senators 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
OTT: 45.3%
TBL: 54.7%
Expected Goals
OTT: 2.94
TBL: 3.17
Total Goals
Median: 5.7
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 36%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 28-12-8 | 0.891 SV% | 2.73 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | OTT | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.881 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.891 | 0.902 |
| GAA | 2.95 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • OTT at home vs TBL: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | OTT 6 - 2 TBL | OTT | OTT |
| 2026-03-28 | TBL 4 - 2 OTT | TBL | OTT |
| 2025-10-09 | TBL 4 - 5 OTT | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-04-03 | OTT 2 - 1 TBL | OTT | TBL |
| 2025-02-06 | TBL 5 - 1 OTT | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13:45 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 05:17 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 07:00 | OTT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Ottawa Senators 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 2.9 - 3.2
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