Pittsburgh Penguins at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2025-04-03 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 5 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (61% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 39.4%

PIT: 60.6%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.57

PIT: 3.60

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Joel Hofer	28	24	4	85.7%	3.13	3	-0.87
PIT	Tristan Jarry	19	14	5	73.7%	2.68	3	-2.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • STL at home vs PIT: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	STL 7 - 5 PIT	STL	PIT
2025-10-27	PIT 6 - 3 STL	PIT	PIT
2025-04-03	STL 5 - 4 PIT	STL	PIT
2025-03-13	PIT 5 - 3 STL	PIT	STL
2023-12-30	PIT 4 - 2 STL	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	7	0	0.35
1	PIT	11	0	0.59
2	STL	16	2	1.49
2	PIT	10	2	1.42
3	STL	5	1	0.59
3	PIT	18	1	1.12
4	STL	2	0	0.25
4	PIT	1	0	0.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 7.2

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 5 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.6 - 3.6