Winnipeg Jets at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2025-04-03 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 0 - 4 Winnipeg Jets
🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 53.9%
WPG: 46.1%
Expected Goals
VGK: 3.09
WPG: 3.29
Total Goals
Median: 6.5
Over 5.5: 71%
Over 6.5: 54%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 23-23-11 | 0.895 SV% | 2.86 GAA
| Stat | VGK | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.879 | 0.867 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.885 |
| GAA | 2.50 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • VGK at home vs WPG: 3-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | VGK 6 - 2 WPG | VGK | VGK |
| 2026-03-24 | WPG 4 - 1 VGK | WPG | VGK |
| 2026-01-06 | WPG 3 - 4 VGK | VGK | WPG |
| 2025-04-03 | VGK 0 - 4 WPG | WPG | VGK |
| 2024-12-12 | WPG 2 - 3 VGK | VGK | VGK |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13:01 | WPG | Goal |
| 1 | 18:15 | WPG | Goal |
| 2 | 11:53 | WPG | Goal |
| 3 | 19:08 | WPG | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 53.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 0 - 4 Winnipeg Jets
Expected: 3.1 - 3.3
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.