Winnipeg Jets at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-04-03 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 0 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 52.9%

WPG: 47.1%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.20

WPG: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • VGK at home vs WPG: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	VGK 6 - 2 WPG	VGK	VGK
2026-03-24	WPG 4 - 1 VGK	WPG	VGK
2026-01-06	WPG 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-03	VGK 0 - 4 WPG	WPG	VGK
2024-12-12	WPG 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	10	0	0.33
1	WPG	16	1	1.03
2	VGK	14	0	0.68
2	WPG	13	0	0.34
3	VGK	23	2	1.50
3	WPG	5	1	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 0 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2