Carolina Hurricanes at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-04-04 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 5 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 41.5%

CAR: 58.5%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.38

CAR: 3.44

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 49%

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Cam Talbot	33	30	3	90.9%	2.92	1	-0.08
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	21	16	5	76.2%	3.85	3	-1.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • DET at home vs CAR: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	CAR 5 - 2 DET	CAR	CAR
2026-01-12	DET 4 - 3 CAR	DET	CAR
2025-12-27	CAR 5 - 2 DET	CAR	CAR
2025-04-04	DET 5 - 3 CAR	DET	CAR
2025-03-14	CAR 4 - 2 DET	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	16	0	1.02
1	CAR	10	0	0.24
2	DET	13	1	1.12
2	CAR	23	1	1.52
3	DET	11	2	1.71
3	CAR	16	0	1.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 5 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.4 - 3.4