Chicago Blackhawks at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-04-04 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks

Win Probability

WSH: 80.5%

CHI: 19.5%

Expected Goals

WSH: 4.38

CHI: 2.43

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 43%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	22	19	3	86.4%	2.70	4	-0.30
CHI	Spencer Knight	30	25	5	83.3%	5.27	5	0.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • WSH at home vs CHI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-09	CHI 1 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2026-01-03	WSH 2 - 3 CHI	CHI	WSH
2025-04-04	WSH 5 - 3 CHI	WSH	WSH
2024-12-17	CHI 3 - 2 WSH	CHI	CHI
2024-03-09	WSH 4 - 1 CHI	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	12	1	1.14
1	CHI	14	2	1.01
2	WSH	16	2	1.44
2	CHI	11	1	1.11
3	WSH	17	2	2.68
3	CHI	7	1	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 80.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 5 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 4.4 - 2.4