Chicago Blackhawks at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-04-04 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks

Win Probability

WSH: 78.7%

CHI: 21.3%

Expected Goals

WSH: 4.28

CHI: 2.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 52%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • WSH at home vs CHI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-09	CHI 1 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2026-01-03	WSH 2 - 3 CHI	CHI	WSH
2025-04-04	WSH 5 - 3 CHI	WSH	WSH
2024-12-17	CHI 3 - 2 WSH	CHI	CHI
2024-03-09	WSH 4 - 1 CHI	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	12	1	1.14
1	CHI	14	2	1.01
2	WSH	16	2	1.44
2	CHI	11	1	1.11
3	WSH	17	2	2.68
3	CHI	7	1	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 78.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 5 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 4.3 - 2.5