Minnesota Wild at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-04-04 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 1 Minnesota Wild

Win Probability

NYI: 59.7%

MIN: 40.3%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.34

MIN: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	28	27	1	96.4%	2.26	0	1.26
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	27	24	3	88.9%	2.41	1	-0.59

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs MIN: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	MIN 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	MIN
2025-11-07	NYI 2 - 5 MIN	MIN	NYI
2025-04-04	NYI 3 - 1 MIN	NYI	NYI
2025-02-08	MIN 6 - 3 NYI	MIN	MIN
2024-01-15	MIN 5 - 0 NYI	MIN	MIN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	9	0	0.40
1	MIN	14	0	0.72
2	NYI	21	1	1.34
2	MIN	18	0	0.71
3	NYI	12	0	0.67
3	MIN	13	0	0.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 1 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0