Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-04-05 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 0 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 45.2%

FLA: 54.8%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.02

FLA: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	39	39	0	100.0%	3.54	0	3.54
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	22	19	3	86.4%	3.16	2	0.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • OTT at home vs FLA: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	OTT 5 - 1 FLA	OTT	OTT
2026-03-31	FLA 6 - 3 OTT	FLA	OTT
2026-01-10	OTT 2 - 3 FLA	FLA	OTT
2025-10-11	FLA 6 - 2 OTT	FLA	FLA
2025-04-05	OTT 3 - 0 FLA	OTT	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	12	1	1.17
1	FLA	17	0	0.88
2	OTT	7	0	0.36
2	FLA	18	0	1.31
3	OTT	12	1	1.63
3	FLA	25	0	1.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 3 - 0 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1