Pittsburgh Penguins at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-04-05 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 54.9%

PIT: 45.1%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.68

PIT: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Casey DeSmith	40	35	5	87.5%	4.58	4	-0.42
PIT	Tristan Jarry	24	21	3	87.5%	2.63	3	-0.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • DAL at home vs PIT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-10	PIT 2 - 1 DAL	PIT	DAL
2026-03-28	PIT 3 - 6 DAL	DAL	PIT
2025-12-07	DAL 3 - 2 PIT	DAL	PIT
2025-04-05	DAL 3 - 5 PIT	PIT	DAL
2024-11-11	PIT 1 - 7 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	11	1	0.79
1	PIT	13	1	0.78
2	DAL	11	2	1.07
2	PIT	23	1	1.60
3	DAL	14	0	0.77
3	PIT	20	2	2.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.7 - 2.8