Pittsburgh Penguins at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-04-05 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 53.2%

PIT: 46.8%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.58

PIT: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DAL at home vs PIT: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	PIT 3 - 6 DAL	DAL	PIT
2025-12-07	DAL 3 - 2 PIT	DAL	DAL
2025-04-05	DAL 3 - 5 PIT	PIT	DAL
2024-11-11	PIT 1 - 7 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-03-22	DAL 4 - 2 PIT	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	11	1	0.79
1	PIT	13	1	0.78
2	DAL	11	2	1.07
2	PIT	23	1	1.60
3	DAL	14	0	0.77
3	PIT	20	2	2.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.6 - 2.9