Carolina Hurricanes at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-04-05 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 5 - 1 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 47.0%

CAR: 53.0%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.80

CAR: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	40	39	1	97.5%	3.06	3	2.06
CAR	Frederik Andersen	27	22	5	81.5%	3.05	1	-1.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BOS at home vs CAR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	CAR 6 - 5 BOS	CAR	CAR
2025-11-17	BOS 1 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-11-01	BOS 2 - 1 CAR	BOS	CAR
2025-04-05	BOS 5 - 1 CAR	BOS	CAR
2025-03-06	CAR 3 - 2 BOS	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	14	0	0.90
1	CAR	17	0	0.62
2	BOS	11	0	0.88
2	CAR	19	1	1.33
3	BOS	12	1	1.27
3	CAR	18	2	1.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 5 - 1 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.8 - 2.9