Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2025-04-05 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Win (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 38.9%
TBL: 61.1%
Expected Goals
BUF: 2.95
TBL: 3.00
Total Goals
Median: 5.0
Over 5.5: 40%
Over 6.5: 26%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | BUF | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.847 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.841 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • BUF at home vs TBL: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | BUF 4 - 2 TBL | BUF | TBL |
| 2026-03-08 | BUF 8 - 7 TBL | BUF | BUF |
| 2026-02-28 | TBL 2 - 6 BUF | BUF | TBL |
| 2026-02-03 | TBL 4 - 3 BUF | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-04-13 | TBL 7 - 4 BUF | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 01:35 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 04:47 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 13:01 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 05:07 | BUF | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | BUF | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | BUF | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 61.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.0 - 3.0
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