Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2025-04-05 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 55.6%
TBL: 44.4%
Expected Goals
BUF: 2.71
TBL: 3.32
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 40%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.72 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | BUF | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.934 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.885 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • BUF at home vs TBL: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | TBL 4 - 3 BUF | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-04-13 | TBL 7 - 4 BUF | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-04-05 | BUF 3 - 2 TBL | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-03-06 | TBL 6 - 5 BUF | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-04-15 | TBL 2 - 4 BUF | BUF | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 01:35 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 04:47 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 13:01 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 05:07 | BUF | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | BUF | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | BUF | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 55.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 2.7 - 3.3