Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-04-05 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 43.5%

TBL: 56.5%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.02

TBL: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

BUF

James Reimer - 10-10-2 | 0.896 SV% | 3.04 GAA

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	James Reimer	26	24	2	92.3%	2.68	1	0.68
TBL	Jonas Johansson	41	37	4	90.2%	5.56	4	1.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • BUF at home vs TBL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-06	BUF 4 - 2 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-03-08	BUF 8 - 7 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-02-28	TBL 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	TBL
2026-02-03	TBL 4 - 3 BUF	TBL	TBL
2025-04-13	TBL 7 - 4 BUF	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	11	1	0.69
1	TBL	7	0	0.28
2	BUF	16	0	1.08
2	TBL	16	1	1.37
3	BUF	18	1	1.28
3	TBL	11	0	0.57
4	BUF	6	0	0.81
4	TBL	5	0	0.31
5	BUF	3	2	1.70
5	TBL	2	0	0.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0