Columbus Blue Jackets at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-04-05 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 0 Columbus Blue Jackets

Win Probability

TOR: 54.7%

CBJ: 45.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.44

CBJ: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	27	27	0	100.0%	1.44	0	1.44
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	27	22	5	81.5%	2.84	3	-2.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • TOR at home vs CBJ: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	CBJ 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	CBJ
2025-11-20	TOR 2 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	TOR
2025-10-29	CBJ 6 - 3 TOR	CBJ	CBJ
2025-04-05	TOR 5 - 0 CBJ	TOR	TOR
2025-01-22	TOR 1 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	11	0	0.57
1	CBJ	19	0	0.82
2	TOR	6	0	0.50
2	CBJ	14	0	0.44
3	TOR	21	3	1.77
3	CBJ	10	0	0.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 0 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7