Colorado Avalanche at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2025-04-05 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 5 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (61% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 38.5%

COL: 61.5%

Expected Goals

STL: 2.81

COL: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	39	35	4	89.7%	3.59	1	-0.41
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	22	17	5	77.3%	2.86	2	-2.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • STL at home vs COL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	STL 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-05	COL 2 - 3 STL	STL	COL
2025-12-31	COL 6 - 1 STL	COL	COL
2025-04-05	STL 5 - 4 COL	STL	COL
2025-03-29	COL 1 - 2 STL	STL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	17	0	0.86
1	COL	22	0	1.55
2	STL	5	0	0.37
2	COL	12	1	1.15
3	STL	10	2	1.62
3	COL	16	0	0.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 5 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.8 - 3.0