Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-04-05 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

CGY: 48.7%

VGK: 51.3%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.04

VGK: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 92% • CGY at home vs VGK: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	VGK 6 - 3 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-12-20	CGY 6 - 3 VGK	CGY	CGY
2025-10-18	VGK 6 - 1 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-10-14	CGY 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-15	CGY 5 - 4 VGK	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	8	0	0.23
1	VGK	16	1	1.54
2	CGY	13	0	0.49
2	VGK	13	0	0.69
3	CGY	11	0	0.79
3	VGK	15	0	0.89
4	CGY	0	0	0.00
4	VGK	3	0	0.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3