Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-04-05 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

CGY: 43.3%

VGK: 56.7%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.11

VGK: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	34	31	3	91.2%	3.28	1	0.28
VGK	Akira Schmid	23	21	2	91.3%	1.51	0	-0.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • CGY at home vs VGK: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	VGK 6 - 3 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-12-20	CGY 6 - 3 VGK	CGY	VGK
2025-10-18	VGK 6 - 1 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-10-14	CGY 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-15	CGY 5 - 4 VGK	CGY	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	8	0	0.23
1	VGK	16	1	1.54
2	CGY	13	0	0.49
2	VGK	13	0	0.69
3	CGY	11	0	0.79
3	VGK	15	0	0.89
4	CGY	0	0	0.00
4	VGK	3	0	0.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3