Washington Capitals at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2025-04-06 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 4 - 1 Washington Capitals
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 59.9%
WSH: 40.1%
Expected Goals
NYI: 3.17
WSH: 2.80
Total Goals
Median: 5.9
Over 5.5: 54%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 20-13-2 | 0.916 SV% | 2.44 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
| Stat | NYI | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.930 | 0.904 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.899 | 0.944 |
| GAA | 2.55 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • NYI at home vs WSH: 2-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | WSH 4 - 1 NYI | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-11-30 | NYI 1 - 4 WSH | WSH | NYI |
| 2025-10-31 | WSH 1 - 3 NYI | NYI | WSH |
| 2025-10-11 | NYI 2 - 4 WSH | WSH | NYI |
| 2025-04-15 | NYI 1 - 3 WSH | WSH | NYI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 07:06 | NYI | Goal |
| 1 | 09:00 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 07:26 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 10:26 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 04:20 | NYI | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 59.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 4 - 1 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.2 - 2.8