Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-04-07 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 1 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

NYR: 46.2%

TBL: 53.8%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.93

TBL: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NYR at home vs TBL: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	TBL 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-11-29	NYR 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-12	TBL 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-04-17	NYR 4 - 0 TBL	NYR	NYR
2025-04-07	NYR 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	19	2	1.30
1	TBL	14	0	1.23
2	NYR	23	1	1.45
2	TBL	5	0	0.16
3	NYR	15	0	0.95
3	TBL	11	2	1.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 1 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2