Calgary Flames at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-04-07 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 2 - 3 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 51.1%

CGY: 48.9%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.19

CGY: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 42%

SJS

Georgi Romanov - 0-6-0 | 0.877 SV% | 3.89 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Georgi Romanov	32	29	3	90.6%	3.71	4	0.71
CGY	Dustin Wolf	31	29	2	93.5%	2.53	1	0.53

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • SJS at home vs CGY: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-26	SJS 1 - 4 CGY	CGY	SJS
2026-01-31	CGY 3 - 2 SJS	CGY	CGY
2025-12-16	SJS 6 - 3 CGY	SJS	CGY
2025-11-13	CGY 2 - 0 SJS	CGY	CGY
2025-04-13	CGY 5 - 2 SJS	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	23	0	1.24
1	CGY	14	0	0.77
2	SJS	11	0	0.76
2	CGY	19	1	0.98
3	SJS	7	1	0.53
3	CGY	18	3	1.97

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 2 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2