Carolina Hurricanes at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-04-08 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 0 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (62% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 38.3%

CAR: 61.7%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.76

CAR: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 49%

BUF

James Reimer - 10-10-2 | 0.896 SV% | 3.04 GAA

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	James Reimer	33	33	0	100.0%	2.06	1	2.06
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	18	15	3	83.3%	2.02	0	-0.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • BUF at home vs CAR: 4-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	CAR 2 - 1 BUF	CAR	CAR
2025-11-23	BUF 4 - 1 CAR	BUF	CAR
2025-11-08	CAR 6 - 3 BUF	CAR	CAR
2025-04-08	BUF 3 - 0 CAR	BUF	CAR
2025-02-27	CAR 5 - 2 BUF	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	10	0	0.71
1	CAR	16	0	0.53
2	BUF	8	0	0.37
2	CAR	13	1	0.72
3	BUF	12	0	0.94
3	CAR	19	0	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 0 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.8 - 3.0