Detroit Red Wings at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-04-08 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 46.0%

DET: 54.0%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.93

DET: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 52%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	36	35	1	97.2%	3.76	2	2.76
DET	Cam Talbot	21	17	4	81.0%	3.00	4	-1.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • MTL at home vs DET: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	DET 3 - 1 MTL	DET	DET
2026-01-10	MTL 0 - 4 DET	DET	MTL
2025-10-09	DET 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	DET
2025-04-08	MTL 4 - 1 DET	MTL	DET
2025-01-23	DET 4 - 2 MTL	DET	DET

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	10	1	0.51
1	DET	34	1	2.04
2	MTL	9	0	0.70
2	DET	12	1	0.96
3	MTL	14	3	1.79
3	DET	13	0	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1