Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-04-08 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 3 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

FLA: 67.6%

TOR: 32.4%

Expected Goals

FLA: 2.78

TOR: 2.45

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • FLA at home vs TOR: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	TOR
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	FLA
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	19	1	0.86
1	TOR	6	0	0.22
2	FLA	19	1	1.27
2	TOR	10	0	0.71
3	FLA	14	1	1.21
3	TOR	8	0	0.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.2

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 3 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.8 - 2.4