Vancouver Canucks at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-04-08 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 5 - 6 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 51.6%

VAN: 48.4%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.44

VAN: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Casey DeSmith	32	26	6	81.2%	4.78	5	-1.22
VAN	Thatcher Demko	28	23	5	82.1%	4.25	3	-0.75

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • DAL at home vs VAN: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	VAN 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-11-20	VAN 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	VAN
2025-10-16	DAL 3 - 5 VAN	VAN	DAL
2025-04-08	DAL 5 - 6 VAN	VAN	DAL
2025-03-09	VAN 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	12	0	0.85
1	VAN	10	0	0.87
2	DAL	18	2	1.93
2	VAN	16	0	1.00
3	DAL	13	1	1.46
3	VAN	20	4	2.37
4	DAL	0	0	0.00
4	VAN	5	1	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 5 - 6 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8