Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-04-08 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

COL: 51.8%

VGK: 48.2%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.23

VGK: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Scott Wedgewood	24	22	2	91.7%	2.29	3	0.29
VGK	Akira Schmid	38	35	3	92.1%	5.57	3	2.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • COL at home vs VGK: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-26	VGK 2 - 1 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-24	VGK 5 - 3 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-22	COL 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-05-20	COL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-04-11	COL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	14	0	0.69
1	VGK	9	0	0.39
2	COL	25	2	2.61
2	VGK	7	2	0.66
3	COL	12	0	0.73
3	VGK	12	1	0.69
4	COL	3	0	0.41
4	VGK	3	0	0.33
5	COL	3	1	1.12
5	VGK	3	0	0.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1