Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-04-09 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (73% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 72.7%

TOR: 27.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 4.44

TOR: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 40%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TBL at home vs TOR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	16	0	0.94
1	TOR	15	1	1.49
2	TBL	27	0	1.48
2	TOR	11	0	0.21
3	TBL	7	1	0.68
3	TOR	17	1	1.96
4	TBL	4	2	0.66
4	TOR	3	1	0.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 72.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.4

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 4.4 - 3.0