St. Louis Blues at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-04-09 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Win Probability

EDM: 58.9%

STL: 41.1%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.26

STL: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 40%

EDM

Calvin Pickard - 4-5-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.69 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Calvin Pickard	26	23	3	88.5%	2.86	4	-0.14
STL	Jordan Binnington	23	19	4	82.6%	2.63	1	-1.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • EDM at home vs STL: 4-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-13	STL 3 - 2 EDM	STL	EDM
2026-01-18	EDM 5 - 0 STL	EDM	EDM
2025-11-03	STL 3 - 2 EDM	STL	EDM
2025-04-09	EDM 4 - 3 STL	EDM	EDM
2025-02-04	STL 2 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	11	0	0.37
1	STL	11	0	0.79
2	EDM	16	1	1.41
2	STL	11	2	0.79
3	EDM	16	0	0.85
3	STL	14	2	1.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0