Chicago Blackhawks at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-04-10 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 2 - 5 Chicago Blackhawks

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 59.1%

CHI: 40.9%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.29

CHI: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	21	16	5	76.2%	2.05	1	-2.95
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	33	31	2	93.9%	3.19	3	1.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BOS at home vs CHI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	CHI 2 - 5 BOS	BOS	BOS
2025-10-09	BOS 4 - 3 CHI	BOS	BOS
2025-04-10	BOS 2 - 5 CHI	CHI	BOS
2024-12-04	CHI 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	CHI
2023-10-24	CHI 0 - 3 BOS	BOS	CHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	14	1	0.59
1	CHI	14	0	0.63
2	BOS	15	1	1.40
2	CHI	7	0	0.30
3	BOS	18	1	1.19
3	CHI	7	1	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 2 - 5 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0