Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2025-04-10 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 5 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes
🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 44.1%
CAR: 55.9%
Expected Goals
WSH: 3.61
CAR: 3.56
Total Goals
Median: 8.2
Over 5.5: 83%
Over 6.5: 70%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 31-21-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA
CAR
Brandon Bussi - 31-6-2 | 0.894 SV% | 2.47 GAA
| Stat | WSH | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.912 | 0.887 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.957 | 0.920 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WSH at home vs CAR: 5-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | WSH 4 - 3 CAR | WSH | CAR |
| 2025-12-11 | WSH 2 - 3 CAR | CAR | CAR |
| 2025-11-11 | CAR 1 - 4 WSH | WSH | CAR |
| 2025-05-15 | WSH 1 - 3 CAR | CAR | CAR |
| 2025-05-12 | CAR 5 - 2 WSH | CAR | CAR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 05:42 | CAR | Goal |
| 1 | 07:14 | CAR | Goal |
| 1 | 18:06 | CAR | Goal |
| 2 | 10:50 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 16:51 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 17:29 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 04:42 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 18:15 | WSH | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | WSH | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 55.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 7.2
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 5 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes
Expected: 3.6 - 3.6
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