Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-04-10 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 40.5%

CAR: 59.5%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.88

CAR: 3.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	36	32	4	88.9%	4.06	1	0.06
CAR	Frederik Andersen	31	26	5	83.9%	4.78	6	-0.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WSH at home vs CAR: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-31	WSH 4 - 3 CAR	WSH	CAR
2025-12-11	WSH 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-11-11	CAR 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	CAR
2025-05-15	WSH 1 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-05-12	CAR 5 - 2 WSH	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	6	1	0.40
1	CAR	27	0	1.79
2	WSH	24	3	2.51
2	CAR	15	0	0.88
3	WSH	11	1	0.71
3	CAR	17	0	0.74
4	WSH	2	0	0.23
4	CAR	3	1	0.34
5	WSH	3	1	0.93
5	CAR	3	0	0.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 7.7

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 5 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.9 - 3.9